Although there are more than 40,000 oil and gas fields of all sizes in the world, slightly less than 80 percent of the proven reserves are concentrated in eight countries, of which only Canada and Russia are not OPEC members.
Japanese and South Korean refiners have increased oil purchases from Russia, eroding the dominance of Middle Eastern suppliers and electing for a more competitive crude source that is three weeks closer by ship. While Russian exports have surged over the last 6 months, the Middle East remains dominant, with total Middle East output in June around 19.9 million barrels, while Russia’s output was 10.3 million barrels, peaking at 330,000 barrels a day in June.
Oil prices gained as much as 1 percent with analysts offering further support; expecting a decline of 1 million barrels of U.S. oil supplies from 363.2 million last week. Oil inventories have not fallen nationwide for two consecutive weeks since January.
The oil spill liability could extend well beyond British Petroleum as Transocean Ltd., Halliburton Co. and Cameron International Corp. all had some exposure to this series of current events.
Flagging of its interest in the black gold this week, China National Oil Corporation secured its place in Iraq. Together with BP, it signed the first big oil deal. Why the sudden interest in oil?
All eyes are on oil majors, as they battle a refining slump. BP reports results Tuesday, followed by Conoco on Wednesday, Exxon and Shell on Thursday, and Chevron on Friday. Though the sector is up 20 per cent, refineries are struggling as demand remains limp. Is there a way out?
Gold may be taking off right now, but it's not the only thing in an uptrend. Energy is also moving higher. The considerable drop of investment in oil exploration and production is, however, set to bring the risk of oil prices hike in the future. In Iraq, a different picture is playing out.
Even as investors are mulling mixed signals over crude supply numbers from the Energy Information Administration, there are clear indications that the Gulf state leaders have no plans to stop pricing oil in dollars. The rumour had traders hitting the panic button.
If bearish sentiment continues for a bit, expect to see a potential break below support levels around $67.35. Further declines in shipping rates due to reduced Chinese demand can be expected to continue, highlighted by expectations for a 50 per cent drop in freight rates in the next four months.
Investment in new oil fields has not been robust; when the current overcapacity is sucked up, the gap between supply and consumption will narrow again, forcing prices up. On that thinking, $75 per barrel can look like a good bet. Juniors lead the way!
Thursday, July 15, 2010