If bearish sentiment continues for a bit, expect to see a potential break below support levels around $67.35. Further declines in shipping rates due to reduced Chinese demand can be expected to continue, highlighted by expectations for a 50 per cent drop in freight rates in the next four months.
Investment in new oil fields has not been robust; when the current overcapacity is sucked up, the gap between supply and consumption will narrow again, forcing prices up. On that thinking, $75 per barrel can look like a good bet. Juniors lead the way!
Prices of light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange are currently trading at half their peak hit in July last year. This has led some producers to postpone oil sands projects as they are capital-intensive and need crude futures above a certain threshold to be viable. US oil demand is also in the doldrums due to the global economic downturn, making it harder for producers to justify investments in new crude oil production. However, PetroChina has gone ahead with its investment in Canadian oil sands.
